November 2008 Archives

In addition to the races for the elected politicians are races for the Party officials at all levels (including NH).  And there does seem to be a horse race at the national RNC level.  Who's running?

Current RNC Chair Mike Duncan is considering running for reelection to the position.

Michael Steele:  former Lieutenant Governor of Maryland; former chair of the Maryland GOP, commentator on Fox News.

Saul Anuzis: Current chairman of the Michigan GOP.

Chuck Yob: National Republican Committeeman from Michigan, former congressional candidate.

Katon Dawson: Current South Carolina GOP Chairman.

Chip Saltsman: Former Tennessee GOP Chairman, former campaign manager for Mike Huckabee.

Possible candidates:

John Sununu: Former New Hampshire Senator.

James Greer: Current Florida GOP Chairman.

Not running:

Fred Thompson.

Newt Gingrich.

And from The Campaign Spot:

At 40, John “Chip” Saltsman is the youngster among the men competing to be the next chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Early starts appear to be a Saltsman pattern. His family was in construction, and he says he drove dump trucks starting at age 14. He became the nation’s youngest state party chair at age 30 in 1998, and had trouble getting into the initial chairman’s meeting, as the guard didn’t believe he was old enough to be the new chairman.

Saltsman’s tenure at the helm of the Tennessee GOP began with him being thrown to the wolves early. One month into the job, his longtime friend, former boss and mentor, Governor Don Sundquist, announced plans to create a state income tax. Conservatives and Republicans across the state revolted almost immediately. Saltsman found himself leading the charge against his friend and former boss – “fighting him tooth and nail” and ultimately the tax plan was defeated. Saltsman says he and Sunquist have barely talked since.

Then Saltsman faced another steep challenge, as then-Vice President Al Gore was setting up his 2000 campaign.

“In fundraising, we raised almost $5.5 million, more than double any previous record in Tennessee, and we did that in a very tough environment, with Al Gore on the ticket. Nobody gave us a shot of beating Al Gore in his home state. We set up a specialized web site, which was pretty unusual back in 2000, called Gore-Free Tennessee. And we beat him – and as we all remember, if Al Gore wins his home state, Florida wouldn’t have mattered.”

He says that in an early meeting, Karl Rove joked that then-Governor Bush would simply wave at the state from an airplane window in between stops in more competitive states. But steady work and progress in the polls convinced the Bush campaign and national party that Tennessee was in play, and Bush campaigned there several times in the final six weeks.

Saltsman is convinced that winning methods at the state level can be applied at the national level.

“In Tennessee, we ran against the Democratic leadership. We ran against a Democratic Lieutenant Governor  (in this state, the position is elected by state senate) and we made him spent more than a million dollars on that bid. We did that across the board on leadership, draining their coffers... and [the GOP] now controls the State Senate and the State House for the first time since 1896.”

From PolitickerNH (and here):

Newly elected House Republican leader state Rep. Sherman Packard (R-Londonderry) said that he was "humbled" to be chosen leader, but added that the next two years will be challenging for the state.

Packard was elected last night in a close vote against state Rep. Gene Chandler (R-Bartlett). State Rep. Fran Wendelboe (R-New Hampton) and state Rep. John Reagan (R-Deerfield) were also running for the leadership position but dropped out after the second ballot.

"I am honored and humbled at being chosen to lead our caucus during the next biennium," Packard said in a statement. "Unfortunately, these are not going to be an easy two years for us or for the state as a whole.  We face staggering revenue shortfalls, a budget that is out of balance by at least $90 Million and more social experimentation that all smack in the face of the New Hampshire Advantage.  Our 176 member caucus will remain vigilant, stand strong against wasteful spending and work hard to protect the taxpayers of this state."

Packard added, "I look forward to putting together a diverse leadership team that will work to bring together the Republican ideals of less taxes and spending and keeping New Hampshire a great place to live, work and raise a family."

Over the next couple of days the House Republicans will announce who will be their deputy leader, assistant leader, policy leader and party whip.

============
State Rep. Fran Wendelboe (R-New Hampton) said that she will "honor" the vote for House Republican leader as she dropped out after the second ballot and threw her support behind Chandler who lost to state Rep. Sherman Packard (R-Londonderry) on the third ballot.

[snip]

Wendelboe also said that she has not determined whether or not she will run for chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party.

"I don't really know what's in store for Fran," Wendelboe said. "I've received a couple of calls this morning and I'm keeping my options open."

Wendelboe ran for party chairman in 2007 but lost to current chairman Fergus Cullen. Wendelboe is also head of the Reagan Network, a grassroots organization for Granite State conservatives.

Out-worked.  Out-Hustled.  Out-Organized.  Out-Spend  Out-Monied.  So, what is the Dems plan now?  From PolitickerNH:

New Hampshire Democratic National Committeewoman Kathy Sullivan said she thinks the party will attempt to "spread the map" in light of their recent electoral success in traditional Republican strongholds.

"I think the DNC will continue to try to build on the success of the 50 state strategy that Gov. (Howard) Dean instituted and which was absorbed into the Obama campaign," Sullivan wrote in an email to PolitickerNH.com.

Sullivan said she expects the Democrats will take their cues from President-elect Obama.

"Typically, the party of the President takes the lead from the President to help promote his agenda," Sullivan said. "President-elect Obama focused on spreading the map, so I think we'll see more of that."

Sullivan also said that she will be paying attention to whether or not the DNC will make changes to render the organization more open.

"It will be interesting to see if any rules changes are instituted to make the DNC less controlled by some of the old DNC establishment interests," she said.

And what will our plan to be adapt and overcome?  Who will be the next leaders?  And will the rest listen, work, and execute the plans?

And here is the offensive wave coming toward us (from The Next Right):

• 13 million e-mail addresses.
• $500 million raised online.
• 6.5 million donations from 3 million donors with an average donation of $80.
• 3.2 million Facebook friends (to John McCain's 600,000).
• 2 million My.BarackObama.com profiles created.
• One million participants in Obama's cell phone text messaging program -- this is less than the 6-8 million rumored but still massive.
• 400,000 volunteer blog posts written. 200,000 volunteer events created. 35,000 local and affinity groups created by supporters.
• Three million volunteer phone calls made in the last four days of the election through the website without supporters having to step into a campaign headquarters.
• The campaign had a full time chief technology officer in addition to a new media director. They had a full time analytics team whose job was to do nothing else but monitor site data.

Obama's use of technology did something that has never been done before - it allowed people who were energized by the hope and change to organize and work on their own.

And the Republican response?

From PolitickerNH:

Below are the rules for the House Republican caucus for when it meets to select its next leader. The rules were emailed by New Hampshire Republican Chairman Fergus Cullen to the candidates running for the leadership position and other people connected to the process.

Cullen's email also included the line, "In the interest of saving one of you time, I have included John DiStaso on this email." DiStaso is the senior political reporter for The New Hampshire Union Leader and author of the weekly column Granite Status. In today's column, DiStaso does not mention the rules or the race for House Republican leader.


The rules of this Caucus shall be the rules of the 2008 New Hampshire House of Representatives, subject to the following additional rules:

PRESIDING OFFICER:  The presiding officer of the caucus shall be the Chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party.  The presiding officer will appoint a Caucus Clerk, a Caucus Sergeant-at-Arms, and ballot clerks.

ELIGIBILITY TO VOTE:  Only members-elect of the New Hampshire House of Representatives who ran as Republican nominees shall be eligible to participate and vote in the caucus.  Access to the Hall, including the gallery, shall be limited to Republican members-elect, caucus officials and such other officers and assistants as may be required by the Caucus Clerk and Caucus Sergeant-at-Arms.  The Caucus Clerk will prepare a checklist of those qualified to vote.

ELIGIBILITY FOR NOMINATION:  Nominations will be accepted on behalf of registered Republicans only.  Nominations must be moved and seconded.  The order of elections shall be Republican Leader first, House Clerk second, and House Sergeant at Arms third.

NOMINATIONS:  First ballot nominating will be limited to 8 minutes for each candidate, including nominating, seconding, and remarks by the candidate.   Nominations for each office will be taken up in alphabetical order by last name of announced candidates who have informed the Chairman of the Republican State Committee of their candidacies as of close of business on Friday, November 21, 2008.  Any subsequent candidacies will be added to the speaking list after previously announced candidates have spoken.  Speeches on subsequent ballots will be limited to three minutes per candidate, with only the candidates permitted time to speak.  Candidates who wish to concede or withdraw shall speak first.  Remaining candidates shall speak in reverse alphabetical order of the speeches given in the round immediately prior.

BALLOTING:  The nomination of a candidate for office will be by a simple majority vote of those present and voting.  Balloting will be conducted by secret ballot.  On each ballot the Caucus Clerk will have printed, in alphabetical order by last name, the names of all announced candidates. There will be one blank line for write-in candidates.  A blank ballot, an abstention, or a vote of present will not be counted as a vote.  If more than two candidates are standing for an office, there will be no elimination of the low candidate after any ballot.  All candidates will remain in the running unless they withdraw of their own volition.  Balloting shall continue until a nominee is chosen.  If, after the announcement of the results, there is no candidate with a majority of votes, there shall be a 10 minute recess.  Each candidate may name two tellers to assist in counting the ballots.  Tellers must be members-elect.

Congratulations to the 176 Republican candidates who have been elected to serve in the NH House of Representatives.  We also thank all candidates who took the time to run for office and who helped spread the Republican message.  It is an important message that we will continue to deliver in the months ahead:  less government, lower taxes and reduced spending. Over the past two years Democrats in the House have continued with a tax, spend and borrow mentality that has put the state into a serious deficit. We will continue to be the watchdogs for fiscal responsibility despite once again being the minority party.

The  Caucus to elect a Republican Leader will be held on Monday, Nov. 24 at 7PM in Representatives Hall at the State House in Concord. We urge all Republican House members to attend.

We also  hope that members and constituents alike will continue to find this site useful in keeping up to date on Republican issues in the House of Representatives.

We are located in  Room 307 of the State House. The phone numbers to contact leadership are 271-6277 or 3665.

For those of you who missed the meeting!  While we did not have a designated special speaker, Sherman Packard (running to be the House Minority Leader).  There was other misc discussions and town reports.

As always, click on the Video Camera below:

Bragdon topples Gatsas for GOP senate leader

State Sen. Peter Bragdon (R-Milford) has been elected the new Senate Republican Leader.

Bragdon defeated state Sen. Ted Gatsas (R-Manchester), who was the Republican leader last legislative session. According to a press release, all 10 Republican state senators supported Bragdon's bid.

"I look forward to having the Senate Republicans work as a team along with the Democrats as we tackle some of the serious challenges facing the state," Bragdon said in a statement.

State Sen. Mike Downing (R-Salem) said the Republican caucus wanted a "new direction."

"It was the caucus's feeling that we needed a new direction, a new focus especially with the budget problems we face, and that we needed to open up the channels of communication between the minority and the majority and the governor's office," Downing said.

Bragdon's selection will be made official on Dec. 3rd when state senators are sworn-in.

PolitickerNH:

Two more Republican House members have announced they will run for House Republican leader, while a third has thrown his hat into the race for House Speaker.

State Reps. Gene Chandler (R-Bartlett) and John Reagan (R-Deerfield) each said they are running for House minority leader. State Rep. Robert Rowe (R-Amherst) said he is running for the speakership and will not be running for the post of House minority leader if his speakership bid fails.

Chandler and Reagan join State Rep. Fran Wendelboe (R-New Hampton) and Sherman Packard (R-Londonderry), who have previously announced they have also decided to seek the leadership post. The 176 House Republicans will meet on Nov. 24 at the State House to elect their leader.

Chandler served as house speaker from 2001 to 2004 before deciding not to seek a third-term amid allegations he violated campaign finance laws. Chandler eventually pled guilty and paid a fine for charges that he did not properly report money he received from a campaign committee. In the last session, Chandler was the number three Republican serving as Republican Policy Leader and was chairman of the House Republican Victory PAC.

"It seems like a natural extension of what I've been in the legislative process and I think I have something to offer and I'll let the Republican caucus decide that," Chandler said.  Chandler said that over the next legislative session Republicans must present a "united front."

"I'm running because I think we need an improved plan-of-action to gain more seats next time around," Reagan said.  Reagan also said House Republicans should focus on a fiscal conservative message that would appeal to voters.

"They need to demonstrate to voters their willingness and ability to do things that favor the taxpayer," he added.

Reagan also said that he has received "very favorable" response from House members. Rowe told PolitickerNH.com that he is running to change the relationship between the speakership and party leaders.

When asked what kind of support he has thus far received from members, Rowe said, "I am not an active political type of person. I have received a lot of good response, but I have not gone out and solicited a response."

From PolitickerNH:

Former U.S. Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-Wolfeboro) said that it is "very unlikely" his name will appear on the ballot in 2010, but did not rule out running for political office in the future.

Bradley lost to incumbent U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-Rochester) on Election Day, but told supporters that he might run again for Congress.

"Save those signs," Bradley said last Tuesday.

However, today he said that it is "very unlikely" he will run for office in 2010.

"I think it's very unlikely that I will be on the ballot in any form in 2010, but beyond that who knows," Bradley told PolitickerNH.com in an interview.

Bradley later added, "I don't want to close doors and options but I'm moving in a new direction even though I don't exactly know what that is."

Bradley said his immediate future plans include spending more time with his kids and helping his campaign staffers find jobs.

Dear Friends,

Thank you.  Thank you.  Thank you.

I can not say it enough - my family and I are forever grateful for your support, your encouragement, and above all, your friendship.
...
With gratitude and best wishes,
Jennifer Horn

P.S.  Remember:  the 2010 election cycle begins today!  Keep spreading the message!

S.O.S.!!  Save Our Signs!

Please gather all the Horn For Congress signs in your community - they may just be needed again!  If you send us an email we will come and get them from you, or you can drop them off to us at 4 Fireside Circle, Nashua.  Thank you for your continued support!

Date:        11/12/08 (Wednesday)

Time:       5:30pm   Buffet Dinner ($13)

                6:30pm   Meeting

Place:      Shanghai Restaurant
                331 South Main Street
                Laconia, NH
                (603) 524-4100
                (see map below)

Agenda:   

• No special speaker this month
• Want to be part of the State Committee?  We are looking for 18 candidates for the next meeting in December.
• Town committees planning for next 2 years.

Map of Shang-hai:
    (map)

Dear New Hampshire Republican:
 
FIRST THE GOOD NEWS:  Despite running into a national headwind and large Democratic wins at the top of the ticket in New Hampshire, we gained 17 seats in the state legislature and held all ten of our state senate seats.  We have more elected NH Republicans today than we had going into yesterday's election.
 
The Democrats failed to achieve their stated goals.  Last April, the state Democratic chairman bragged that "there will not be a single Republican state senator north of Derry after November," predicting a 20-4 Democratic majority.  Today we have six Republican state senators north of Derry.  All eight of our incumbents were re-elected and we held our two open seats.  Just two weeks ago Democratic Speaker Terri Norelli said the Democrats would expand their majority in the state house, but instead we increased our numbers by 17 seats.
 
I'm also pleased that, in contrast to 2006, our New Hampshire Republican candidates ran as a team and did so with a clear, consistent message focused on the Democrats' 17% increase in state spending and 23 tax and fee hikes.  In fact, one of our successful open seat state senate candidates, Bill Denley, and the Carroll County Republicans made up lots of signs educating voters about the 17% spending increase.  Denley won a race the Democrats expected to win.
 
THE BAD NEWS:  The national races went very badly due to national issues beyond our ability to influence or control.  Barack Obama carried New Hampshire by ten points, 55-45%.  John Sununu did a little better but lost to Jeanne Shaheen by seven points, 52-45%, in what is a great loss not just for New Hampshire but for the nation.  Carol Shea-Porter defeated Jeb Bradley by seven points, 52-45%, and Paul Hodes defeated Jennifer Horn by sixteen points, 57-41%.  We didn't get back control of the Executive Council as we had hoped to.
 
WHAT HAPPENED?  Some things in a campaign are within one's ability to control or influence.  Many things are not.  I am confident that New Hampshire Republicans - our candidates, our campaign teams, our coordinated Victory effort, and the state party - did about as good a job at those things within our ability to control as we could have done.  We had good candidates and, through an outstanding Victory program, did more to support them than has ever been done in New Hampshire before.  More volunteers.  More voter contacts.  More phone calls.  More doors.  More direct mail.  A top-notch turnout program far, far superior to what we were able to do in 2006.
 
But those things outside our ability to control mattered more.  We couldn't do anything about the president's approval rating.  We couldn't do anything about the economic instability that blunted the real momentum the McCain campaign had coming out of the convention.
 
I don't think there was anything more we could have done, collectively, that would have led to a different result.
 
THANK YOU JOE:  I am grateful that Joe Kenney stood up and took on the governor's race when many others would not.  Joe showed courage, resolve, perseverance, and strength of character in this campaign, and our party owes him a debt of gratitude. 
 
And I am proud of how much we at the party were able to do to help and support Joe.  It was much, much more than party was able to do for our candidate in 2006.  Specifically, Joe benefited from our coordinated Victory campaign and all our get-out-the-vote effort.  He was included in all the absentee ballot mailers and our slate mailers.  We provided him with free office space and all the infrastructure that went with it - internet, copy machines, etc - so that he didn't have to waste time or his limited resources reinventing any of that.  When we saw that his campaign manager could use help, we hired and paid for a full-time staffer to double their staff capacity.  Joe was given prime speaking opportunities at both of John McCain's recent visits. 
 
WHAT NOW:  And so we suffered some defeats and made some modest gains.  New Hampshire has clearly not become a blue state, but remains a competitive toss-up state where neither party has a built-in advantage.  In the coming months there will be a vigorous discussion about the future of the Party, both at the state and the national level.  So long as we keep the discussion constructively focused on what we need to do to continue the real progress we made in New Hampshire in this election cycle, I welcome the debate.
 
Sincerely,
 
Fergus Cullen
Chairman, New Hampshire Republicans


============================

Sen. Judd Gregg To Run Again
In case you missed it, Sen. Judd Gregg indicated today that he intends to stand for re-election in 2010.
 
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Signs, Signs, Everywhere Signs
People in NH are pretty tolerant of political signs - but let's not test that patience.  If you see stray political signs still up on public property in the next week, consider pulling over and throwing it in your trunk.

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County & City Caucuses
Prior to December 15, the NH GOP will organize 14 city and county caucuses as we begin reorganizing the state committee for the 2010 election cycle.  We will notify caucus-eligible members of the date and location of your meeting in the coming weeks.
============================

Tune In for More
On Thursday morning I will be an in-studio guest on NHPR's "The Exchange" for a show focused on the status and future of the Republican Party in NH.  Tune it at 9 a.m. on 89.1 FM.  Also, on Sunday morning at 9:00 a.m. I will be one of the guests on WMUR Channel 9's "Close Up" discussing the election.

 

U.S. Senator     Former Governor Shaheen (D) has defeated incumbent
                         Senator John E. Sununu (R)

U.S. CD-1          Incumbent Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter (D) has defeated
                         former Congressman Jeb Bradley (R)

U.S. CD-2          Incumbent Congressman Paul Hodes (D) has defeated
                        Jennifer Horn (R)

Governor           Incumbent Governor John Lynch (D) has defeated
                         NH Senator Joe Kenney (R)

Exec. Council   Incumbent Exec. Councilor Ray Burton (R) has defeated
                         Mike Cauble (D)

NH Senate D-4  Incumbent NH Senator Kathleen Sgambati (D) has defeated
                         Laconia City Councilor Greg Knytych (R)

NH Senate D-2  Incumbent NH Senator Deb Reynolds (D) has defeated
                        NH Representative Bill Tobin (R)

NH House Races

Belknap County District 1    Incumbent Representative Fran Wendelboe (R)     unopposed

Belknap County District 2    Dennis Fields (R) elected
                                         Liz Merry (D) elected

Belknap County District 3    Incumbent Representative Steve Nedeau (R) elected
                                         Kate Miller (D) elected

Belknap County District 4    Incumbent Judy Reever (D) elected
                                         Incumbent Don Flanders (R) elected
                                         Incumbent Beth Arsenault (D) elected
                                         Richard Stuart (D) elected
                                         John Veazey (R) elected

Belknap County District 5    Incumbent Doc Pilliod (R) elected
                                         Incumbent Alida Milham (R) elected
                                         Jeffrey St. Cyr (R) elected
                                         Bill Johnson (D) elected
                                         Incumbent Laurie Boyce (R)  elected
                                         Peter Bolster (R) elected
                                         Elaine Swinford (R) elected

Belknap County District 6    Incumbent Representative David Russell (R)     unopposed

Belknap County

Commissioner:   Ed Philpot (D) elected
                         Incumbent Commissioner Brad Long (R) elected

Sheriff:               Craig Wiggin (R)

Treasurer:           Mike Muzzey (R)

Attorney:            Jim Carroll (D)

Register of Probate: unknown at this time

Register of Deeds:   unknown at this time.

It is being reported that the NH GOP has gone to court to stop possible voter fraud.  It seems that Republican poll watchers are being kept up to 40 feet away (can't read or hear stuff from that distance) from the Registration areas at the poll locations - THIS IS ILLEGAL!

More later!

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Date:               October 30, 2008
Contact:          Fergus Cullen, Chairman, New Hampshire Republican Party
                       603-225-9341 office, 603-520-5450 cell


CONCORD – Republican Party Chairman Fergus Cullen today questioned the honesty of Jeanne Shaheen’s claim to have rebuked her spokesperson for calling BAE employees “war profiteers.”

Yesterday Shaheen visited Nashua’s BAE, New Hampshire’s largest manufacturing employer.  During the visit, BAE employees questioned why Shaheen had stood by in dumb silence when one of her spokespeople repeatedly called BAE employees “war profiteers” in a summer press release and video.  According to today’s Nashua Telegraph, Shaheen stated, “I expressed my displeasure with people at the Democratic Party about that release.”

“Shaheen’s answer doesn’t cut it and it doesn’t pass the smell test,” said Fergus Cullen, chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party.  “Who, specifically, did Shaheen talk to, and when?  One of Shaheen’s spokespeople smears more than 4,000 voters who are employees of one of New Hampshire’s most respected companies, and Shaheen claims she said made a private rebuke but didn’t say anything publicly?  I don’t believe her,” Cullen said.

Video of Shaheen being questioned by BAE employees is posted at http://granitegrok.com/blog/2008/10/vlog_shaheen_faces_the_music_at_bae_syst_1.html

Today’s Nashua Telegraph story is post at http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081030/NEWS02/310301068/-1/news

There is an NHPR audio account of the exchange posted at http://www.nhpr.org/node/18647

TO:                  McCain Strategy Team

FROM:             Bill McInturff, Lead Pollster, McCain-Palin 2008; Partner,
                       Public Opinion Strategies

RE:                  State of the Race and Ballot Position

DATE:              October 28, 2008

First, let’s be clear: This is a hard election to “predict.”

The historic nature of the candidates on both tickets, the huge influx of unregulated money by the Obama campaign, the dour public mood, and the unique level of voter interest all suggest an historic level of turn-out, not witnessed in over 40 years.

• Our models/understanding of what is coming is therefore necessarily projective, but, here is what we know for sure:
• The McCain campaign has made impressive strides over the last week of tracking.
• The campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states … with our numbers IMPROVING sharply over the last four tracks.
• The key number in our mind is Senator Obama’s level of support and the margin difference between the two candidates.
  

As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday.

We are witnessing a significant shift across the battleground states.

The race has moved significantly over the past week, closing to essentially tied on the last two-day roll.  These gains are coming from sub-groups it should be possible to sustain over the next week, including:

• Non-college men;
• Rural voters, both men and women;
• Right-to-life voters; and most encouragingly;
• We are beginning to once again get over a 20% chunk of the vote among soft Democrats.

Importantly as well, our long identified target of “Walmart women” – those women without a college degree in households under $60,000 a year in income are also swinging back solidly in our direction.

Finally, in terms of critical improvement, even as this track shows more Republicans voting for us than Democrats supporting Obama, we are witnessing an impressive “pop” with Independent voters.

As I said during our Sunday briefing, we do substantially more interviews per day than any public poll, but, given the shift we were witnessing, it was my expectation that by Tuesday/Wednesday multiple public polls would show the race closing.  A quick glance at Real Clear Politics would indicate this is happening by today, Tuesday, and that’s good!

It is not surprising we are witnessing this closing as we are finally having an opportunity to run a campaign that focuses on Senator Obama’s record on taxes and his lack of experience.

We are tracking how much people have seen, read, or heard about a number of thematic elements from both campaigns, including the false charges about Senator McCain’s health care plan, being out of touch on the economy, and the Obama’s campaign charges about Medicare.  At the same time, we are testing awareness of “Joe the Plumber,” Senator’s Biden’s quote about his own running mate being so inexperienced it invites being tested by our enemies around the world, and Obama’s proposals that will raise federal spending by a trillion dollars.

This has been the week where “Joe the Plumber” has literally become a household name.  An astounding 59% of voters in these battleground states have heard “a lot” about this story, 83% have heard “a lot” or “some” about this episode.

TO: MIKE SLANKER, NATIONAL REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL COMMITTEE

FROM: GLEN BOLGER, PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

RE: NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE TRACKING KEY FINDINGS

DATE: OCTOBER 28, 2008


Key Findings

1. Senator John Sununu has the momentum in his race against Jeanne Shaheen.

Last Monday, October 20th, Senator Sununu trailed Jeanne Shaheen by six points (41% Sununu/47% Shaheen/5% Blevens). By Thursday, October 23rd, Sununu had narrowed the gap to just three points (43% Sununu/46% Shaheen/5%Blevens). As Election Day draws closer, it is clear that in a tight race, the momentum is on Sununu’s side.

2. Sununu’s improved standing on the ballot is buoyed by an increase in support for McCain on the Presidential ballot

Last Thursday, October 23rd, Senator McCain trailed Senator Obama by just four pointson the Presidential Ballot (44% McCain/48% Obama). Just three days earlier, McCain faced a nine point deficit (41% McCain/50% Obama).

The Bottom Line

With less than two weeks left until Election Day, Senator John Sununu trailed Jeanne Shaheen by just three points. As voters continue to learn more about former Governor Shaheen’s liberal record, an already close race will become even closer. Despite being written off by many in the media, Sununu has an excellent chance to pull off an Election Day surprise on November 4th.

Methodology

Public Opinion Strategies conducted two telephone surveys among 525 likely voters in New Hampshire. These surveys were conducted October 15-16, 19, and October 20-22, 2008, and have a margin of error of +4.28% in 95 out of 100 cases.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Date:               October 23, 2008
Contact:          Fergus Cullen, Chairman, New Hampshire Republican Party
                        603-225-9341 office, 603-520-5450 cell

BUCKLEY SPEAKS FOR SHAHEEN, SHEA-PORTER, HODES, AND LYNCH

CONCORD – Fergus Cullen, Chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, made the following statement today:

“Debbie Lee, a Gold Star Mother whose Navy Seal son was killed in Iraq, says that New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Raymond Buckley told her, ‘We’ve all lost things,’ dismissing her son’s life as though it were a set of misplaced car keys or a pair of sunglasses.  Rather than realize he made a mistake an offer an apology, Chairman Buckley has defended and reiterated his remark, condescendingly adding that Ms. Lee is allowing herself to be ‘used’ by others.

“Raymond Buckley is a spokesman for Jeanne Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Paul Hodes, and John Lynch, and serves as party chairman with their support.  I don’t know what is more offensive:  that Chairman Buckley cannot see that he made a mistake and offer an appropriate apology, or that Shaheen, Shea-Porter, Hodes, and Lynch stand by in silence, signaling their agreement with the outrageous comment he made.”